Eastern Ukraine: A Dangerous Winter

Winter in Ukraine is injecting further uncertainty into an already volatile conflict. After well over 5,000 deaths and eight months of war, eastern Ukraine – particularly the separatist-held parts of Donetsk and Luhansk – now runs the risk of a humanitarian crisis. All parties involved in the conflict should refrain from offensive operations, concentrating instead on helping the population survive the winter, and laying the groundwork for a political settlement.

With the onset of the cold, many people living in the east will find themselves without access to food, heating or medication. The separatists will be unable to do much to help, having created little in the way of a functioning government and having few competent administrators. In its latest report,Eastern Ukraine: A Dangerous Winter, the International Crisis Group examines the thinking and capacity of the separatist leadership and their relationship with Moscow, and proposes short-term recommendations to stabilise the security situation and build confidence on all sides.

The report’s major findings and recommendations are:

• The EU, U.S. and all others involved in the peace process should call on the separatists, the Ukrainian and Russian governments to foreswear any offensive military actions over the winter. All actors involved should move urgently to demilitarise the conflict by substantially increasing monitors on the ground, both to separate the forces and closely observe the Ukrainian-Russian border. They should also urge separatist and Ukrainian leaders back to the negotiating table.


• On its part, Russia should spell out the exact nature of its political relationship with the separatist areas of the east, in particularly clarifying what it has long hinted at – that it has no plans to recognise their independence. Moscow should propose negotiations with Kyiv to resupply Crimea by land during the winter if needed and offer wholehearted support for a significant increase in the number of monitors on the ground in south east Ukraine.


• Ukraine should facilitate the delivery of emergency humanitarian assistance, if needed, to the separatist-held areas, and consult with the international community on ways to lessen the impact for non-combatants in Donetsk and Luhansk of presidential decree 875/2014, which declares illegal any bodies established by the separatists on the basis of their 2 November elections.

“Both Kyiv and the separatists are under pressure from their war lobbies, and the near-term risk of further hostilities is high’s mandate”, says Isabelle Arradon, Deputy Chief Policy Officer and Director of Research. “The separatists’ improvised and rudimentary administrative structures are totally unequipped to handle any major humanitarian crisis should one happen”.

“There is an urgent need to halt the conflict, separate the troops, deploy substantially larger numbers of international monitors across the warzone and the Russian-Ukrainian border, as well as take immediate steps to assist civilians on both sides”, says Paul Quinn Judge, Europe and Central Asia Program Director. “The winter should be used to achieve the first steps toward a political settlement”.