Resetting Pakistan’s Relations with Afghanistan

As Pakistan seeks to consolidate its fragile democracy, it should seize the moment to improve relations with its Afghan neighbour. Its biggest challenge comes from within. The civilian government has to regain control over national security and foreign policy from the military.

In its latest report, Resetting Pakistan’s Relations with Afghanistan, the International Crisis Group examines the opportunities and constraints faced by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government as it attempts to improve a deeply troubled relationship with Kabul. Realising that his goal to stabilise Pakistan’s faltering economy will remain elusive in the absence of security, Sharif has reached out to Afghanistan, hoping to reduce bilateral tensions and contribute to stabilising post-transition Afghanistan, and thus improving Pakistan’s own stability. But Sharif’s approach, welcomed by the incoming Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, faces serious challenges at home.

The report’s major findings and recommendations are:

• As the Sharif government attempts to reduce bilateral tensions, much depends on its will and ability to wrest political space from the military. The military high command continues to hedge its bets, either actively or tacitly supporting a revived insurgency, which threatens to undermine Afghanistan’s transition. Recent anti-government demonstrations have strengthened the military’s ability to extract concessions, likely including with regard to policy toward Afghanistan.


• While the military’s control over security policy remains an impediment, there are nevertheless significant opportunities for improved relations. Pakistani-Afghan economic ties could be strengthened to mutual benefit if both countries improved and expanded their infrastructure, including road and rail links connecting the two countries; reduced cumbersome security measures; and eased cross-border movement. Both sides should furthermore increase anti-corruption measures and begin talks on a free-trade agreement.


• Pakistan should ease the uncertain and insecure lives of the millions of Afghan refugees on its territory. It should sign and ratify the 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol. Until it does, it should enact a national law for refugees that codifies long-term protections and rights, and respects the principle of non-refoulement.
  

“Pakistan’s civilian leadership is well aware that the country’s security is best served by a stable Afghanistan. It has taken some initial steps toward stronger bilateral ties and should continue on this path”, says Samina Ahmed, South Asia Project Director and Senior Asia Adviser. “If Afghanistan stabilises, so will its economy, with the resultant expansion in bilateral and transit trade benefiting Pakistan”.

“The civilian leadership’s preference for peace with Kabul sharply contrasts with the military’s hedging strategies”, says Jonathan Prentice, Chief Policy Officer and Acting Asia Program Director. “As the democratic transition consolidates, stronger civilian control over national security and foreign policy will create fresh opportunities to more constructively reset the relationship with Afghanistan”.