Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Weather Changes? Be Prepared!

Based in Geneva, Switzerland, the WMO is made up of 191 member states, with 185 countries as well as six territories such as the Caribbean Islands. The precursor to the organisation was set up in 1873, as governments realised that countries needed to coordinate their forecasting. Today, that coordination is more vital than ever as we start to see increasingly extreme weather events such as forest fires and flooding.
The last report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change showed that, as the atmosphere warms up, weather systems such as typhoons and hurricanes can hold more moisture. This makes events more extreme - if not necessarily more frequent. By working together, meteorological offices across the world have the best chance of preventing and mitigating weather damage.

Three parts to resilience

"There are three components to helping countries become resilient to extreme events," explains David Grimes, President of the WMO. "Defining the probability of an extreme event, managing the risk of an event, and transferring the risk. The WMO acts across all of these domains."
For instance, for a hazard such as a typhoon affecting the East coast of Asia, the WMO brings together the climatology from agencies across the world and shares information so that countries can understand the severity of risk. This can make a huge difference on the ground, as 2013's Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines showed, when warnings were in place for a number of days before the storm actually hit.
"A community may not be able to withstand 300 km winds, but if we can help the community bounce back sooner and mitigate the loss of life, then that has to be a great success."
The WMO is ideally placed to share information with all countries that might be affected by an extreme weather event. They exchange information in real time through various centres, including WMO-certified Global Producing Centres, such as the Met Office. This information is also fed into the regional hubs such as the typhoon centre in Hong Kong or the hurricane centre in Miami.
When it comes to risk management, the WMO works with officials to help them understand the consequences of these events and the vulnerabilities in society. They also work with international response agencies, such as Red Cross, to help give them all they need to react to early warnings.
The third component David cites - transfer of risk - involves helping an economy bounce back to a steady state once an extreme event has happened. "An event like Sandy or Katrina can have a big impact on infrastructure, and countries need to respond quickly and get back to business," he explains.

Insuring the future

Insurance and finance sectors are particularly vulnerable to any downturn after such an event - especially when urban environments are hit. Huge investment - both private and public - goes into towns and cities and all parties need to know they can manage risks and pay for repairs when needed.
The WMO is making a real difference to shareholders and governments across the world through helping to establish building codes. Using these codes, organisations can pool knowledge and draw on WMO advice to set up best practice for specific nations, regions or towns. "The methodology gets translated," says David. "It's up to individual countries to apply the advice to their own national circumstances."
Many countries around the world already have a long heritage in constructing resilient buildings, such as those along the Pacific rim, designed to withstand earthquakes. Now builders are taking into account meteorological and hydrological events such as wildfire or coastal flooding.

Sharing the knowledge

"What makes us most conscious of extreme events is the fact that their impact is now estimated in the billions of dollars, not the millions," explains David. The threat to infrastructure and life means that it is crucial for agencies and experts to share and disseminate knowledge as speedily and effectively as possible.
Knowledge can spread quickly at regional and national levels. David describes a study in his home country of Canada, where structural damage was studied to measure the various impacts of tornadoes. The study showed that V clips were much more effective for roof tiles than plaster, as they allowed single tiles to be lost, rather than the whole roof. This knowledge spread quickly through the building and architectural sector via industry publications and journals.
The WMO also enables entire countries to disseminate knowledge about an extreme weather event. For example, when Typhoon Diane hit Vietnam - one of the most underdeveloped areas of South East Asia - the country lacked the resources to spread a warning message effectively. But since then, the WMO has consolidated resources across the region to provide the best possible early warning system and help the people of Vietnam predict and prepare for the future.
"This is something I'm passionate about," says David. "It's not just about sophisticated climate modelling, it's about translating the models into actionable policies, and transferring that into the hands of the policymakers. A community may not be able to withstand 300 km winds, but if we can help the community bounce back sooner and mitigate the loss of life, then that has to be a great success."

Creating 'Weather Ready Nations'

There has been a lot of talk in the US and Canada recently about 'Weather Ready Nations,' whereby public and private sector organisations work together to enhance a country's preparedness. For instance, the Canadian Meteorological Service works with public health organisations to warn populations about predicted events. Meanwhile in France, thresholds for warnings are defined by the emergency services, based on information from the meteorologists - which has proved to be a coordinated and pragmatic approach.
Another example is the use of 'Last mile champions', media spokespeople who persuade communities to evacuate when storms are approaching. As we all play a part and all understand that we need to take action, we are building a consistent and resilient response. "Every nation should be a Weather Ready Nation," says David. 

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