(This article originally appeared in the Feb 8th, 2011 edition of the Century City News)
According to the recent recap of the 2010 California housing market by the California Association of Realtors (“C.A.R.”) , the year ahead should bring stability and opportunities. The C.A.R. report looked at median price, unsold inventory and sales as prognosticators for the market.
The analysis found that the 21% gain in median price above the February 2009 trough could be a good indication of the beginning of stability in the housing market. The C.A.R expects annual sales and median price in California to rise by 2% this year.
The report explains that the “unsold inventory index” is a good indicator of home prices. When the amount of housing inventory is below a 7 month supply, it usually leads to price appreciation. The November unsold inventory index was 6.2 months. This reflects the amount of time it would take to sell the entire current housing inventory. This number is 13% below the long-run average of 7.1 months and 63% below the recent January 2008 peak of 16.6 months.
It is a positive sign that the unsold inventory index has stayed at a healthy range throughout 2010 between 4.6 and 6.6 months. This is another indication
of the beginning of stability.
Further, sales are also doing fairly well taking historical data into consideration. Year over year sales declined almost 10% but the seasonally adjusted sales in November of last year were up 93% from the trough 3 years ago. This is 19% above the long run annual average over the last 39 years.
In addition, the percentage of distressed sales as compared to total sales declined to 41% from 46% in 2009. Although there is still a heavy volume of distressed properties, the decline supports the forecast that the housing market is heading up.
The California Association of Realtors’ outlook is consistent with the report by the UCLA Anderson School of Business which sees 2011 as a transition year of stabilization. However, there are still uncertainties in the market including shadow inventory which could impact the length of time it takes for sellers to sell their properties.
With so many instances of inflation recently from the price of gas to coffee to hamburgers (the price of the BK Whopper Junior has risen from $1 to $1.49 over the past year or so), when will housing show the same inflation? Now may be a good time to review your options.
With interest rates still at historically low rates, there are opportunities for investors, owner-users and international buyers.
To find short pays and foreclosures in your area or for a free consultation to assess your real estate options, contact Bess at 310.291.4111. Bess Hochman is a Real Estate Broker & top producer for more than 15 years. Bess is also distinguished by holding a law degree. Her high-end clientele include celebrities, attorneys, and other professionals that understand the value of a real estate broker with legal expertise and experience. A native of Beverly Hills, Bess credits her success to repeat referrals by her satisfied clients
Bess won’t let you guess. E-mail: Bess.CenturyCitynews@yahoo.com. Bess may be reached at 310.291.4111.
* The sources of information may or may not have been based on information from the combined A/Westside Multiple Listing Service as of 2-04-11. Some listings may not be available as of publication.
c. 2011 Bess Hochman
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“Bess is a master negotiator!” says Michael Donaldson, attorney & author of Negotiating For Dummies
Michael Douglas Carlin is the director of the movies Luvicide and American Federale. Recently he completed a ten-year stint as the Publisher and Editor of the Century City News. Here his articles turned into three books: Rise a Knight, A Prescription for Peace, and Peaceful Protests.
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